Modelo SIR da tendência pandêmica de COVID-19 no Peru
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31053/1853.0605.v78.n3.31142Palavras-chave:
Coronavirus, epidemia, Número básico de reprodução, número básico de reproduçãoResumo
O vírus SARS-CoV-2 da Europa chegou ao Peru em 5 de março e desde 16 de março foi declarado estado de emergência nacional, levando ao confinamento de toda a população. O objetivo deste estudo é caracterizar a evolução epidêmica da doença coronavírus (COVID-19) aplicando o modelo SIR (Susceptível-Infeccioso-recuperado ou falecido) durante um período de 200 dias. Foram utilizados os dados da série temporal COVID-19 de 06 de março a 14 de maio de 2020 do Ministério da Saúde do Peru, levantando casos estimados variando o número de reprodução básico R0. De acordo com o modelo SIR, o pico de infectados ocorre logo após 30 de maio do início da epidemia (dia 86) onde o número total de casos infectados diminui para R0 = 1,5. Os resultados sugerem que as atuais medidas rigorosas do Peru podem prevenir efetivamente a disseminação do COVID-19 e devem ser mantidas mesmo com resultados eficientes.
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