Fertility Probabilistic Projections in Argentina

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Published: Jul 28, 2023
DOI: https://doi.org/10.55441/1668.7515.n31.38015
Keywords:
Modelos para Datos Funcionales, Modelos jerárquicos Bayesianos, Tasa Global de Fecundidad, Argentina, proyecciones demográficas

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Lucia Andreozzi
Instituto de Investigaciones Teóricas y Aplicadas de la Escuela de Estadística Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas Universidad Nacional de Rosario
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1723-5725
Bruno Ribotta
Centro de Investigaciones y Estudios sobre Cultura y Sociedad Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas Universidad Nacional de Córdoba
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1943-0513

Abstract

In recent years, a significant number of demographic statistical methods have been proposed. Most of them have been developed with the purpose of forecasting demographic components or indicators derived from the assumptions of an underlying model. The present work aims to carry out a comprehensive comparative exercise through the estimation and forecast of fertility based on three proposals —classic forecast methods such as ARIMA models and exponential smoothing, functional data models (FDM) and Bayesian hierarchical models (BHM)— as a first step towards the study of population projections derived from each of method, using data from Argentina. The exercise has as final objective the estimation of mortality and fertility through the three aforementioned methods to later integrate them into population projections.

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How to Cite
Andreozzi, L., & Ribotta, B. (2023). Fertility Probabilistic Projections in Argentina. Astrolabio, (31), 254–279. https://doi.org/10.55441/1668.7515.n31.38015
Issue
No. 31 (2023): Neoliberal post-feminism and feminist activisms in the current capitalist and pandemic conjuncture
Section
Artículos de investigación
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