La dimensión climática en los conflictos sudaneses: desafío para la estabilidad de Darfur

Contenido principal del artículo

Luis Haroldo Pereira dos Santos Júnior
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9060-2632
Guilherme Ziebell
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0118-6279

Resumen

El presente trabajo tiene como tema la influencia del cambio climático en los conflictos en Sudán, especialmente en Darfur. Tras obtener su independencia en 1956, Sudán ha tenido que lidiar con disputas tanto en la región sur (que culminaron con la separación de Sudán del Sur en 2011) como en Darfur, lo que resultó en un conflicto abierto en 2003. En las últimas dos décadas, el cambio climático ha pasado a ser considerado cada vez más como un factor potencial que exacerba estas tensiones locales. Ante esto, buscamos responder la siguiente pregunta: ¿cuáles son las implicaciones del cambio climático para el panorama de seguridad de Sudán, particularmente en Darfur? En términos teóricos, el artículo adopta una perspectiva crítica de seguridad, con el objetivo de comprender el carácter multidimensional de las fuentes no tradicionales de amenazas a la seguridad del país, como la amenaza climática. En términos metodológicos, se utilizó un enfoque cualitativo y hermenéutico, con el análisis de informes de organizaciones internacionales y documentos del gobierno sudanés, además de otros trabajos académicos. Si bien los fenómenos climáticos han contribuido a la exacerbación de la inestabilidad en Sudán, sobre todo las disputas en Darfur, se concluye que su influencia se produjo de manera indirecta, en conjunto con otras dimensiones sociales, económicas y políticas. Se entiende, sin embargo, que la inclusión de aspectos climáticos sería una herramienta importante para reducir la inestabilidad local.

Descargas

Los datos de descargas todavía no están disponibles.

Detalles del artículo

Cómo citar
Pereira dos Santos Júnior, L. H., & Ziebell, G. (2024). La dimensión climática en los conflictos sudaneses: desafío para la estabilidad de Darfur. Astrolabio, (32), 187–213. https://doi.org/10.55441/1668.7515.n32.41327
Sección
Dossier
Biografía del autor/a

Luis Haroldo Pereira dos Santos Júnior, Universidad Federal de Rio Grande Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul – Brasildo Sul

Estudiante de doctorado en el Programa de Posgrado en Estudios Estratégicos Internacionales de la Universidad Federal de Rio Grande do Sul (PPGEEI/UFRGS), con beca CAPES. Magister en Estudios Estratégicos Internacionales (PPGEEI/UFRGS). Licenciado en Derecho por la Universidad de Fortaleza (UNIFOR).

Guilherme Ziebell, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul – Brasil

Professor colaborador del Programa de Posgrado en Estudios Estratégicos Internacionales (PPGEEI) de la Universidad Federal de Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil (UFRGS). Tiene un doctorado en Ciencias Políticas (PPGPOL/UFRGS) y Maestría en Estudios Estratégicos Internacionales (PPGEEI/UFRGS). Es licenciado en Relaciones Internacionales y en Ciencias Económicas (UFRGS).

Citas

ABBOUD, Sammer; DAHI, Omar S.; HAZBUN, Waleed; GROVE, Nicole S.; PISON HINDAWI, Coralie; MOUAWAD, Jamil; e HERMEZ, Sami. (2018). “Towards a Beirut School of critical security studies”. Critical Studies on Security, 6-3, 273-295. Disponível em: https://doi.org/10.1080/21624887.2018.1522174 [consulta: 10 janeiro 2023].

ACHARYA, Amitav. (2018). Constructing global order: agency and change in world politics. Cambridge, U. K.: Cambridge University Press.

AL JAZEERA. (2020). “Floods-hit Sudan facing «unprecedented challenges», UN warns”. Al Jazeera, 25 setembro. Disponível em: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/9/25/over-800000-affected-in-sudan-flooding-un [consulta: 10 janeiro 2023].

ANDERSON, Lisa. (1987). “The State in the Middle East and North Africa”. Comparative Politics, 20-1, 1-18. Disponível em: https://doi.org/10.2307/421917 [consulta: 10 janeiro 2023].

AYOOB, Mohamed. (1991). “The Security Problematic of the Third World”. World Politics, 43-2, 257-283. Disponível em: https://doi.org/10.2307/2010473 [consulta: 22 março 2022].

BEHNASSI, Mohamed. (2017). Climate Security as a Framework for Climate Policy and Governance. Em M. Behnassi e K. McGlade (eds.), Environment Change and Human Security in Africa and the Middle East, pp. 3-24). New York: Springer. Disponível em: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-45648-5_1 [consulta: 2 abril 2023].

BERRY, LaVerle. (2015). Sudan, a country study. Washington: Library Of Congress.

BILGIN, Pinar. (2005). Regional Security in the Middle East: a critical perspective. London: Routledge.

BRONKHORST, Salomé. (2011). Climate Change and Conflict: Lessons for Conflict Resolution from the Southern Sahel of Sudan. Durban, South Africa: ACCORD.

BROWN, Oli; HAMMIL, Anne; e MCLEMAN, Robert. (2007). “Climate change as the «new» security threat: implications for Africa”. International Affairs, 83-6, 1141-1154. Disponível em: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2346.2007.00678.x [consulta: 15 fevereiro 2023].

CARDOSO, Nilton C. F. (2020). Segurança Regional no Chifre da África: conflitos, atores, agendas e ameaças. Porto Alegre: Cebrafrica-CEGOV.

CLAPHAM, Cristopher. (1996). Africa and the International System: the Politics of State Survival. Cambridge, U. K.: Cambridge University Press.

CPS (Conselho de Paz e Segurança). (2016). 585th Meeting, 30 Mar. 2016. Disponível em: http://www.peaceau.org/uploads/psc-585-br-climate-change-30-4-2016-eng.pdf [consulta: 22 março 2022].

CPS (Conselho de Paz e Segurança). (2021). 1051th Meeting, 26 Nov. 2021. Disponível em: https://www.peaceau.org/uploads/eng-final-communique-of-the-1051st-psc-meeting-held-on-26-november-2021-copy.pdf [consulta: 22 março 2022].

COX, Robert. (1996). Approaches to world order. Cambridge, U. K.: Cambridge University Press.

DE WAAL, Alex. (2007). War in Darfur and the search for peace. Harvard: Harvard University Press.

DE WAAL, Alex. (2013). Sudan: Darfur. Em J. Boulden (ed.), Responding to conflict in Africa: The United Nations and Regional Organizations, pp. 283-306. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.

DEAFALLA, Taisser; CSAPLOVICS, Elmar; e EL-ABBAS, Mustafa. (2019). Environmental Change Impacts and Human Security in Semi-Arid Region, the Case of Nuba Mountains of Sudan. Em Mohamed Behnassi, Himangana Gupta e Olaf Pollmann (eds.), Human and environmental security in the era of global risks: perspectives from Africa, Asia and the Pacific Islands, pp. 187-203. New York: Springer.

ETEFA, Tsega. (2019). The Origins of Ethnic Conflict in Africa: Politics and Violence in Darfur, Oromia, and the Tana Delta. New York: Springer.

FLINT, Julie e DE WAAL, Alex. (2008). Darfur: a new history of a long war. London: Zed Books.

FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations). (2015). Sudan Plan of Action (2015-2019). Washington: United Nations. Disponível em: https://www.fao.org/3/i4786e/i4786e.pdf [consulta: 15 novembro 2022].

HOFFMAN, Mark. (1987). “Critical Theory and the Inter-Paradigm Debate”. Millennium: Journal of International Studies, 16-2, 231-250. Disponível em: https://doi.org/10.1177/03058298870160022801 [consulta: 5 fevereiro 2023].

IDRIS, Amir. (2005). Conflict and Politics of Identity in Sudan. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.

IEP (Institute for Economics & Peace). (2022). Ecological Threat Report 2022: Analysing Ecological Threats, Resilience & Peace. Sydney: IEP. Disponível em: https://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/ETR-2022-Web-V1.pdf [consulta: 5 fevereiro 2023].

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). (2007) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Disponível em: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ar4_syr_full_report.pdf [consulta: 11 fevereiro 2022].

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). (2014). Climate Change 2014 – Synthesis Report: Summary for Policymakers. Disponível em: https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf [consulta: 11 fevereiro 2022].

KORANY, Bahgat; BRYNEN, Rex; e NOBLE, Paul. (2016). The Analysis of National Security in the Arab Context: Restating the State of Art. Em R. Brynen, B. Korany e P. Noble (eds.), The Many Faces of National Security in the Arab World, pp. 1-23. New York: Springer.

MALWAL, Bona. (2015). Sudan and South Sudan: from one to two. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.

METZ, Helen C. (1992). A country study: Sudan. Washington: Library of Congress.

NASCIMENTO, Daniela. (2012). “A dimensão religiosa e étnica nos conflitos do Sudão: uma análise crítica”. Ciência e Cultura, 64-4, 26-29. Disponível em: https://doi.org/10.21800/s0009-67252012000400013 [consulta: 18 junho 2022].

NATSIOS, Andrew S. (2012). Sudan, South Sudan, and Darfur: what everyone needs to know. Oxford, U. K.: Oxford University Press.

NUPI (Norwegian Institute of International Affairs) e SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute). (2022). Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet Sudan. Disponível em: https://sipri.org/sites/default/files/NUPI%20SIPRI%20Fact%20Sheet%20Sudan%20May%202022.pdf [consulta: 20 março 2023].

ND-GAIN (Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative). (2023). Rankings. Notre Dame, IN: University of Notre Dame. Disponível em: https://gain.nd.edu/our-work/country-index/rankings/ [consulta: 20 março 2023].

OCHA (United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs). (2023). Sudan. Washington: United Nations. Disponível em: https://reports.unocha.org/en/country/sudan/ [consulta: 20 março 2023].

REPUBLIC OF THE SUDAN. (2016). National Adaptation Plan. Disponível em: https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/NAPC/Documents%20NAP/National%20Reports/Sudan%20NAP.pdf [consulta: 30 setembro 2023].

REPUBLIC OF THE SUDAN. (2021). First Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement. Disponível em: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-10/Sudan%20Updated%20First%20NDC-12102021.pdf [consulta: 30 setembro 2023].

RYLE, John e WILLIS, Justin. (2011). Introduction: Many Sudans. Em John Ryle (ed.), The Sudan handbook, pp. 27-39. London-Nairobi: Rift Valley Institute.

SIDDIG, Khalid; STEPANYAN, David; WIEBELT, Manfred; GRETHE, Herald; e ZHU, Tingju. (2020). “Climate change and agriculture in the Sudan: Impact pathways beyond changes in mean rainfall and temperature”. Ecological Economics, 169, 1-17. Disponível em: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106566 [consulta: 23 setembro 2022].

SORBO, Gunnar e AHMED, Abdel Ghaffar. (2013). Introduction: Sudan’s Durable Disorder. In Gunnar Sorbo e Abdel Ghaffar Ahmed (eds.), Sudan divided: continuing conflict in a contested state, pp. 1-24. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.

UN (United Nations). (2007). Statement by the Secretary General of the United Nations. Bali: United Nations. Disponível em: https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2007/cop13/eng/06.pdf [consulta: 10 janeiro 2023].

UNDP (United Nations Development Program). (2013). Water governance in the Arab Region: Managing Scarcity and Securing the Future. Washington: United Nations.

UNDP (United Nations Development Program). (2020). UN Sudan Results Report 2018, 2019 and 2020. New York: United Nations. Disponível em: https://sudan.un.org/sites/default/files/2021-10/Sudan_UNDAF_report_2018-2020.pdf [consulta: 13 julho 2022].

UNEP (United Nations Environment Program). (2007). Sudan post-conflict environment assessment. Washington: United Nations. Disponível em: https://doi.org/978-92-807-2702-9 [consulta: 7 abril 2022].

UNEP (United Nations Environment Program). (2009). From conflict to peacebuilding: the role of natural resources and the environment. Washington: United Nations. Disponível em: https://wedocs.unep.org/handle/20.500.11822/7867 [consulta: 7 abril 2022].

UNEP (United Nations Environment Program). (2020). Sudan: First State of Environment and Outlook Report 2020. Washington: United Nations.

UNHCR (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees). (2022). Global Trends Report 2021. Copenhagen: UNHCR. Disponível em: https://www.unhcr.org/publications/brochures/62a9d1494/global-trends-report-2021.html [consulta: 7 abril 2022].

UNSC (United Nations Security Council). (2014). Resolution 2.173: adopted by the Security Council at its 7250th meeting. Washington: United Nations. Disponível em: https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/778983 [consulta: 7 abril 2022].

USAID (United States Agency for International Development). (2016). Climate change risk profile – Sudan. Washington: USAID. Disponível em: https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/pa00mtz6.pdf [consulta: 7 abril 2022].

VALBJØRN, Morten e HAZBUN, Waleed. (2017). “Scholarly identities and the making of Middle East IR: insights from the Global/Post-Western IR debate”. APSA-MENA Workshops, 3, 3-6.

WILLIAMS, Paul. D. e BELLAMY, Alex J. (2005). “The Responsibility to Protect and the Crisis in Darfur”. Security Dialogue, 36-1, 27-47. Disponível em: https://doi.org/10.1177/0967010605051922 [consulta: 30 setembro 2023].

WOODWARD, Peter. (1990). Sudan, 1898-1989: The Unstable State. London: Lester Crook Academic Publishing.

WORLD BANK. (2021). Country Engagement Note - Sudan. Washington: World Bank Group. Disponível em: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/879871602253859419/pdf/Sudan-Country-Engagement-Note-for-the-Period-FY21-FY22.pdf [consulta: 7 abril 2022].

ZOLNIKOV, Tara Rava. (2019). The World Adapting to Climate Change. Em Tara Rava Zolnikov (ed.), Global adaptation and resilience to climate change, pp. 117-132. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.