La crisis europea y el mito de la recuperación irlandesa: una mirada

Marco Biagetti

Resumen


En este artículo en primer lugar examino los puntos principales de la crisis de la eurozona (UME), mostrando que la credibilidad de un tipo de cambio fijo, junto con la libre circulación de capitales en la UME determinó un exceso de confianza, una caída excesiva de las tasas de interés y superabudancia en la demanda de prestamos, lo que hizo colapsar el sistema cuando se produjo la nombrada crisis la cual tuvo origen en el exterior de la zona. Esa crisis dañó las finanzas públicas, pues que el sistema bancario tuvo que ser rescatado por los gobiernos. En segundo lugar, analizo una aparente historia de éxito de la recuperación de la crisis que parece debida a la austeridad: la de Irlanda. Resalto que el gobierno irlandés saliente en 2010 actuó bien en el medio de la crisis financiera, a pesar de la eficacia y conveniencia de las medidas de austeridad. Pero también recojo hechos y cifras sobre lo que sólo aparentemente parece ser una verdadera recuperación y que sin embargo se obtuvo mediante algunos trucos de contabilidad inevitables y dependientes de una nueva normativa obligatoria de contabilidad nacional tomada a nivel de la UE y relativa al tratamiento de las inversiones. Desafortunadamente todo esto produjo y todavía produce cifras infladas para el PIB y el PNB, mientras que los estándares de vida de los ciudadanos irlandeses siguen siendo no muy afectados.


Palabras clave


Eurozona; crisis bancaria; medidas de austeridad; tipos de interés; PIB; RNB

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