De los picapiedras a los supersónicos: Maravillas del progreso tecnológico con convergencia

Autores/as

  • Javier Gerardo Milei Fundación Acordar

Palabras clave:

Crecimiento Económico, cambio tecnológico, capital humano, convergencia económica

Resumen

El presente artículo se basa en una colección de ensayos. Estos describen cómo la convergencia y la aceleración del crecimiento basada en el capital humano y el progreso tecnológico nos pondrán de frente a una singularidad económica, donde la economía dejaría de ser la ciencia de administración de la escasez para convertirse en la ciencia del estudio de la acción humana en un entorno de abundancia radical. Cuantitativamente, si en el Siglo XXI el mundo converge, el PBI per-cápita crecería a una tasa del 4,18%, por lo que éste se multiplicaría 59,1 veces, superando en 4,6 veces los logros de 20 siglos. Si quiere hacerse una idea de lo que hablo, compare nuestro nivel de vida con el de inicios de la Era Cristiana. Luego considere qué sentiría una persona de dicho tiempo si le relatara lo que acontece hoy en nuestro mundo. Ahora, intente racionalizarlo y multiplique esas sensaciones 4,6 veces. Bienvenido a la Singularidad.

 

Descargas

Los datos de descargas todavía no están disponibles.

Citas

Abramovitz, Moses, (1956) “Resource and Output Trends in the United States Since 1870”, American Economic Review, 46, mayo, págs. 5-23.

Abramovitz, Moses, (1986) “Catching Up, Forging Ahead, and Falling Behind”, Journal of Economic History, 46, junio, págs. 385-406.

Aghion, Philippe y Peter Howitt, (1992) “A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction”, Econométrica, 60, págs.323-351

Arrow, Kenneth J., (1962a), “The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing”, Review of Economic Studies, 29, págs. 155-173.

Baily, Martin Neil y Robert Solow, (2001), “International Productivity Comparison Built form the Film Level”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15, verano, págs. 151-172.

Barro, Robert J., (1991), “Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countires”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, 2 mayo, págs. 407-443.

Barro, Robert y Xavier Sala-i-Martin, (1991), “Convergence across States and Regions”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, nº1, págs 107-182.

Barro, Robert y Xavier Sala-i-Martin (1992a) “Convergence”, Journal of Political Economy, 100, 2 abril, págs. 223-251.

Barro, Robert J. y Xavier Sala-i-Martin (1995) Economic Growth, McGraw Hill, New York.

Barro, Robert, (1997) Determinants of Economic Growth; A Cross-Country Empirical Study, Cambridge, MIA, MIT Press.

Barro, Robert y Xavier Sala-i-Martin (1997) “Technological Diffusion, Convergence, and Growth]”, Journal of Economic Growth, 2 (1), págs. 1025-1054.

Barro, Robert y Jong-Wha Lee (2000) “International Data on Educational Attainment Updates and Implications”, NBER Working Paper 7911, septiembre.

Baumol, Wiliam J. (1986) “Productivity Growth, Convergence and Welfare: What the Long-Run Data Show”, American Economic Review, 76, 5 diciembre, págs 1072-1085.

Cohen, Daniel y Marcelo Soto (2001) “Growth and Human Capital: Good Data, Good Results”, Discussion Paper no. 3025, centre for Economic Policy Research.

Dixit, Avinash K. y Joseph E. Stigliz (1977) “Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity”, American Economic Review, 67, 3 junio, págs. 297-308.

Dollar, David y Aart Kraay, (2002), “Growth is Good for the Poor”, Journal of Economic Growth, 7, septiembre-octubre, págs.195-225.

Drucker, Peter F., (1997), “The Future That Has Already Happened”, Harvard Business Review, 75, septiembre-octubre, págs. 20-24.

Easterlin, Richard A., (2000), “The Worldwide Standard of Living Since 1800”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 14, invierno, págs. 7-26.

Easterly, William, (1995), “Explaining Miracles: Growth Regressions Meet the Gang of Four”, en Taka Ito y Anne O. Krueger (comps.), Growth Theories in Light of the East Asian Experience, Chicago, University of Chicago Press.

Galor, Oded, and Omer Moav, (2004), “From Physical Capital to human Capital: Inequality and the Process of Development”, Review of Economic Studies.

Galor, Oded y David N. Weil, (2000), “Population, Technology, and Growth; From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demogrphic Transition and Beyond”, American Economic Review, 90, septiembre, págs. 806-828.

Grossman, Gene M. y Elhanan Helpman, (1991b), Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy, Cambridge, MIT Press.

Grossman, Gene M. y Elhanan Helpman, (1994a), “Endogenous Innovation in the Theory of Growth”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 8, págs. 23-44.

Hall, Robert y Charles Jones, (1999), “Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output per Worker than Others?”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114, febrero, págs. 83-116.

Helpman, Elhanan (comp.), (1998), General Purpose Technologies and Economic Growth, Cambridge, MIT Press.

Helpman, Elhanan, (2004), The Mystery of Economic Growth.

Jones, Charles, (1995), “R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth”, Journal of Political Economy, 103, agosto, págs. 759-784.

Jones, Charles, (1997), “On the Evolution of the World Income Distribution”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11, págs. 19-36.

Jones, Charles, (1998), Introduction to Economic Growth, Nueva York, Norton.

Jones, Charles, (2002), “Sources of U.S. Economic Growth in a World of Ideas”, American Economic Review, 92, marzo, págs. 220-239.

Kaku, Michio: “La Física de lo Imposible” (versión digital tomada de Internet)

Lucas, Robert E., 1(989), “On the Mechanics of Economic Development”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, mayo, págs. 3-42.

Lucas, Robert E, (1993), “Making a Miracle”, Econométrica, 61, marzo, págs. 251-272.

Maddison, Angus, (1979), “Per Capita Outout in the Long Run”, Kyklos, 32, págs. 412-429.

Maddison, Angus, (1982), Phases of Capitalist Development, NY., Oxford University Press.

Maddison, Angus, 1995, “Monitoring the World Economy 1820-1992”, Paris, Development Center of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Maddison, Angus, (2001), “The World Economy: a Millennial Perspective”, Paris, Development Center of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Mankiw, N. Gregory, (1995), “The Growth of Nations”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, nº1, primavera, págs. 275-326.

Mankiw, N. Gregory, David Romer y David N. Weil, (1992), “A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107, mayo, págs.407-437.

Meadows, Donella H., Dennis L. Meadows, Jørgen Randers y William W. Behrens III, (1972), “The Limits to Growth; A Report for the Club of Romeo´s Project on the Predicament of Mankind”, Nueva York, Universe Books.

Mowry, David C. y Nathan Rosenberg, (1998), Paths of Innovation: Technological Change in 20th Century y America, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.

Nelson, Richard R. y Edmund S. Phelps, (1966), “Investment in Humans, Technological Diffusion, and Economic Growth”, American Economic Review, 56, mayo, págs. 69-75.

Rebelo, Sergio, (1991), “Long-Run Policy Analysis and Long-Run Growth”, Journal of Political Economy, 99, 3, junio, págs. 500-521.

Romer, Paul M., (1986), “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth”, Journal of Political Economy, 94, págs. 1002-1037.

Romer, Paul M., (1987), “Growth Based on Increasing Returns Due to Specialization”, American Economic Review, 77, 2 mayo, págs. 56-62.

Romer, Paul M., (1990), “Endogenous Technological Change”, Journal of Political Economy, 98 (5, pt.2), octubre, págs. S71-S102.

Romer, Paul M., (1992), “Two Strategies for Economic Development: Using Ideas and Producing Ideas”, Proceedings of the World Bank Annual Conference on Development Economics, Supplement to the World Bank Economic Review, págs. 63-91.

Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, (1997b), “I Just Ran Two Million Regressions”, American Economic Review, vol.87, nº2, págs. 178-183.

Sala-i-Martin Xavier, (1999), Lecture Notes on Economic Growth, Second Edition.

Schumpeter, Joseph A., (1934), The Theory of Economic Development , Cambridge, MA, Harvard University Press.

Schumpeter, Joseph, (1998), Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, NY, Harper and Row.

Simon, Julian L., (1981), The Ultimate Resource, Princeton, Princeton University Press.

Solow, Robert M., (1956), “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70, págs. 65-94.

Solow, Robert M., (1957), “Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 39, págs. 312-320.

Uzawa, Hirofumi, (1961), “Neutral Inventions and the Stability of Growth Equilibrium”, Review of Economic Studies, febrero, págs. 117-124.

Uzawa, Hirofumi, (1965), “Optimum Technical Change in an Aggregative Model of Economic Growth”, International Economic Review, 6, págs. 18-31.

Weil N. David, (2006), Economic Growth.

Descargas

Publicado

2014-08-29

Cómo citar

Milei, J. G. (2014). De los picapiedras a los supersónicos: Maravillas del progreso tecnológico con convergencia. Actualidad Económica, 24(83), 5–18. Recuperado a partir de https://revistas.unc.edu.ar/index.php/acteconomica/article/view/9532

Número

Sección

Artículos